After Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCOPA) navigation of Ecolitical* culture shows one repeating word that takes over all other words in the new sequence of events, believing or not, the word is “OIL”. Long before global sanctions on Iran, which lifted on Jan. 16th, 2016, there were a lot of arguments about how and when Iran would fill the deep gaps in its oil-related economy? A one century old industry discovered and initiated by others!
No one needs to be a scientist to realize that the “Oil” is not as vital as it was a century or even half a century ago. If the Oil was lubricating the Paternoster Row or Wall Street’s wheels, it is no longer the same. If “Each Barrel Price” nightmare stories were shocking during the OPEC Eagle, for some and then later in 2014 and worse in 2015, for others, it is anybody’s guess that the future market for the black gold will be astonishing for both sides. In the course of the past months the oil prices shrunk to lowest levels in 12 years for below $30. Many analysts predicting that it could fall and relax at $20 zone if Iran returns to its pre-sanctions stage and adds about half a million barrels per day more oil to the market.
Oil prices are now at a 20-year low and after all the black gold is not a sparkling enterprise any more. Once upon a time it was a sort of power-builder and a valuable item for which regimes changed and wars planned. In both exporting and importing countries the Oil Cartels and their lobbies were “de facto” rulers enjoying their Master-Minds playing and its winning power and prestige. Their political territory was safe and secure and those, even few, challenged it learned hard not to poke their nose “in other peoples’ business.”
Now the big Oil is on a one-way and tragically downhill exit road. It is hard to say that during magnificent days of Oil Kingdom our concept of economics was a great historical misunderstanding. If it exists yet, here or there, then it is a historical shame. Spending a great time and energy to find the best ways for extraction of crude oil, also the huge amounts of energy we use and abuse to run our near to zero productivity industries, go the same way!. We never understood that “economic maturity” is not digging and selling oil. It is only destruction of economy.
Thinking of sanctions consigned to the history can’t give us another “Carte’ de Blanche” to repeat the same mistakes again and start to build our future on the oil and gas fields. Frankly speaking we don’t have enough influence and power, unlike the past, to be at the peak of decision makers for this global market. But it is time for us to learn from the past and build our future by information and wisdom. Understanding global principles of economics and applying it could be considered as kind of an economic maturity. “Being the biggest and the best in the Region” Syndrome is not a demand of economic maturity. We have to compare ourselves with the best at the world level and strive to achieve that level in an intelligent way. Apparently, for known reasons we are far from that mentality yet. In terms of oil and gas, Iran’s reservoirs and its related potentials that help us to meet part of the global energy needs is factual but, so what?
With the scenario set aside for a new round of bilateral economic relationship with the world as the consequences of the amputation of decades of trade and banking limitations, we are obliged to respect our priorities first. Oil no more can neither should be considered as an economical credit for us or even being one of our top priorities with its downfall prices. We should look at it at the end of our priority list. If we don’t then we might expect another crisis when its value goes further down. We have to think about “Resistance Economy”; A non-oil economy like other countries which have never been an oil drilling country.
We are at the end of thinking oil is a rescuer of our economy in due time and place. If we don’t believe this then more and more we increase our distance from the world economy. Undoubtedly this also keeps us away of a mature economy. Dumping economies of the oil exporting countries is now showing signs of persistent exhaustion and sharp fiscal distraction.
Now we have reached to the bottom line; our economy can’t rely on oil revenues any more. Oil is the last century’s high value product, and our tomorrow can’t be built on it. This bitter truth is real and legitimate, and we have to devise better plans for our oil & gas fields.
Development of Iran’s petrochemical industries for production of engineering and other new high-tech polymers rather than polyolefins and other non-polymeric petrochemicals is a wise decision. This calls for investment by foreign investors who should believe in our financial services and systems and receive enough assurance for the safety of their investments. This could be the same prescription for other Iran’s wealth under the earth.
Either we have to diversify or we have to lose more. The world has lifted the sanctions but doesn’t respect immature economy or involves itself in it by risky investments.
A. 
A. Saatnia
March. 1st. 2016
* Ecolitical : An abbreviation made by the author for Economies which directly relate to politics.
