In a research done by Laurent Lebreton an Oceanographer”, the future of plastics wastes has been studied. This is part of the text of the former news at this website and we preferred to publish it separately.
The benefit of using socio-economic indicators, such as population density and GDP, to predict waste generation is that this information is actively studied and projections into the future are available. We used these projections in our model and assessed the generation and disposal of plastic under three scenarios.
Our first scenario was a business-as-usual case where consumer plastic demand grows with the economy and the population, and where no further effort is made for waste management. Under uncontrolled growth in demand for plastic, with current standards of waste management, global emissions into the environment could double by mid-century.
We tested a second scenario where waste management infrastructures would improve over time as the economy of a country grows. Reported national waste data shows that levels of waste management infrastructure generally increase with GDP per capita, internationally. Thus, the more affluent the country, the more waste it generates per inhabitant, but the better it is at managing its waste. Under this scenario, global emissions could start decreasing by 2020 as investment of waste management offsets the increase in population and consumer demand. The main hotspots of mismanaged plastic waste generation would gradually move from Asia to Africa. This scenario would require major contributors like China or India to reach Western standards for waste management as their economies align with wealthier countries in the coming decades.
Finally, we introduced a third scenario where waste management improvement would be joined with efforts to reduce plastic waste globally. As of 2018, there were 27 countries that enacted policies implementing bans on (some) single-use plastics. To reflect the growing international willingness to reduce plastic waste, we established a scenario where the mass fraction of plastic in municipal waste would be capped at a global average of ~10% for all countries by 2030 and 5% by 2040. These values are achievable, as some industrialized countries already report such reduced levels. Denmark, for instance, the first country to establish a tax on single-use plastic bags, now reports less than 5% of solid waste made of plastic. In this scenario, global emissions could be reduced to a third by mid-century, even with a growing population.
Plastic continuously entering the ocean is a challenge we face on a global level. If nothing is done, the problem is expected to double in the coming decades. Fortunately, current behaviors, emerging innovations and new legislation exemplify that there is a demand to reduce the output; and this can be a significant reduction – if approached from multiple angles.
We conclude that the solution to this epidemic will likely come from a combination of reduction targets (particularly with packaging and single-use plastics), innovation in materials science and significant investments in waste management infrastructures, with more interception points for ocean-bound plastic. These preventive measures doubled down with curative solutions, such as cleanup operations for existing ocean plastic, will pave the way for cleaner oceans by 2050.
About “Laurent Lebreton”
Oceanographer
