Today, Wednesday, Nov. 13th, the Tehran currency market has seen significant growth in the FOREX index. Also, the gold market has moved upward as US$ market was under pressure. Today, in fact is the 4th day of US$ rise, as this currency surpassed the resistance limits of Rls. 117.000 and registered a new record after 3 months.
According to PIMI reporters and analysts, the US$ took its fourth incremental step stronger than the previous three. The US currency rose to about Rls. 118.000 yesterday by about 270 Toomans increase and then returned to “11.760 Toomans. The rate that is well above the resistance barrier of 11.700 Toomans that had not been broken in the past 90 days. The break of this barrier has resulted in the market manipulators’ more serious watching the changes and the market’s fluctuation.
Surveys show that the answer to this question can be searched in the following three important scenarios. Scenarios that follow micro and macro market angles and eradicate the current fluctuation.
Resistance barrier failure
The currency market had been quiet for about 70 days at a rate of 11.400 Toomans per US$. But this phase of relaxation ended earlier this week and began an upward trajectory. Although the pace of the dollar’s rise at the beginning of the week was very slow, but, the closer the end of the week was, the faster the US$ value rose. on the first day of the week, the exchange value of the US$ was about Rls. 113.500 or 11.350 Toomans (T). But yesterday the price rose to 11.760 T. In this way, it is simple to trace the 4 days of US$ value change to around d 410 Toomans. Something that could blow another storm at the Iranian economy.
On the other hand, and in the view of another index, the US Dollar was up by 5.3% just in 4 days and in the free market. This 410 T. increase came with the following arrangement: On Sun. 90 T; On Mon. 55 T, On Tue. 35 T and on Wed. 230 T. So as we moved from beginning of the week to the end of the week, not only was the exit of the currency market from the relaxation phase became more believable, but the heavy resistance rates were also broken one by one. On Tues. the currency market broke the first resistance rate, and registered it for 11.500 Toomans.
Though, the FOREX market has crossed this resistance bar several times in the last three months. The breakdown of yesterday’s 11.750 Toomans resistance barrier made the exit of the calm phase believable for many market players, especially whereas the US$ resisted the rate for about 90 days. Of course, today and around 2 pm the market experienced a slight decline; some evidences suggest that the decline of about 80 T., was the result of a policy reform for a short time. The correction, of course, was not stable and the dollar tended to rise again and was closed at about 11,720 Toomans.
The exiting of the FOREX market from the relaxation phase has created a key question in the minds of the market players. Whether this is a seasonal and temporary fluctuation or a long-term comet? In other words, will it be the medium-term future of the dollar look like the freeway trend of the past 2 years? Or is it a seasonal fluctuation that ends with the season ending?
To answer this question, three different scenarios are presented, including the “seasonal demand scenario”, “new demand wave scenario” and “macroeconomic flow scenario”. Each scenario provides a unique answer to this question.
The rest of this analysis will be published tomorrow night.
