The Results for Iran, US, Europe and Russia During 2016
Iran RU, the specialty news agency for Iran and Russia under management of “Dr. Rajab Safarov“ (The following photo) a Tajik/Russian nationality political analyst which has been in collaboration with the CEO of this Portal, has summarized the co-story between the three regions of the world and Iran.
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December 30, 2016
The balance of power in the Middle East is changing, and, apparently, the situation turns not against Iran, quite the contrary. Tehran’s intentions to play the role of a large and influential regional powers find factual confirmation, 2016. The year can be considered a success for the Iranian diplomacy and economy. The International Atomic Energy Agency at the beginning of the year said that Iran has fulfilled all its main commitments under the integrated action plan on nuclear dossier. With the publication of the report in January it began easing sanctions on Iran and the removal of the oil blockade. The country breathed a sigh of relief, but Iranians expected positive effects from taking the nuclear deal did not happen. The struggle continues, with whom fighting Islamic Republic and who prefers to be friends.
US sanctions remain and have prevented the Americans themselves
Iran is unhappy with the way the United States comply with their obligations under the nuclear agreement. On the eve of the new 2017 Washington extended for another 10 years, the law on sanctions against Iran ( “Act sanctions against Iran”). The act entered into force without the signature of the US president. Barack Obama according to the constitution had ten days in which to sign it, or use its veto, but he preferred to do nothing with the document, which eventually will automatically come into force. Consolation Secretary of State John Kerry, who said that the law will not affect the nuclear agreement and its provisions do not restrict the ability of foreign companies to do business with the Islamic Republic – a simple tribute to political correctness in favor of Obama’s cowardly, easily retreated from its decision on Iran.
However, to expect from an inglorious leaving the White House, President-loser courageous position did not make sense. In November this year, the US unilateral sanctions against Iran, entered 37 years ago, it was extended for another year. Obama then explained that he had decided to uphold the President’s Executive Order on November 14, 1979. Recall that Jimmy Carter made this decision in response to the seizure of American hostages at the US Embassy in Tehran in the early period of the Islamic Republic. As you can see, extending the “state of emergency”, the US government maintains a confrontation with Iran, at least for another year. This is the Iranian legacy inherited president-elect Donald Trump.
Any economic strengthening Iran will inevitably be converted into military power, in which it sees the elite of national security and security of an instrument of foreign expansion. Experts believe that the maximum objective to Washington – to return the Iranian secular regime, which existed there until 1979. Therefore, Iran relief from sanctions any perceived in the United States is very painful and it is considered a sign of weakness.
Although Trump promised to stop doing in the US “global sheriff” and intervene in the affairs of other countries, leading them into a state of chaos, his sympathy for Iran is also no. Trump says about the prospect of the US unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran. The agreement he called a “disgrace” and signed by the Americans – “stupid people”. But the gap on the Iranian nuclear program, the transaction is not likely to follow, but in the present form, the administration does not accept the agreement Trump. Revision of the terms of the US agreement on the abolition of sanctions against Iran is inevitable. Tehran to prepare for the fact that Trump will put forward new requirements, possibly in the direction of greater benefit to the business of private companies in the US.
Rather, to be a new auction in which the questions of Iran’s nuclear program will be in the background (to Iran at the IAEA no complaints), and priority will be the removal of Iranian political restrictions on the admission of Americans to their markets, including in the sphere of oil and gas industry. American companies are suffering a loss, without using the possibility of building economic relations with Iran.
Trump just hate when Total and Royal Dutch Shell European giants monopolize the purchase of Iranian oil, extracting from it billions in profits. Moreover, despite the promise of Trump terminate nuclear agreement with Tehran, Royal Dutch Shell and Total has followed has signed an agreement with the National Iranian Oil Company on development of oil and gas fields. These contracts are estimated at 4-5 billion dollars each. Undoubtedly, it is the victory of the Iranian economy, a real breakthrough for full-scale economic cooperation with Europe.
Europe intends to return to Iran, despite US obstacles
EU warns Trump team from returning to confrontation with Tehran with sanctions that, according to Brussels, can ruin a deal on Iran’s nuclear program. EU unlikely to support a new campaign of international pressure on the Islamic Republic, the year 2016 showed that the new economic sanctions against Iran are doomed to fail in the current environment. Iran, in contrast to the United States, in compliance with all terms of the transaction.
The negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue began in 2004, after Tehran accused western countries in the development of “a secret military nuclear program.” Since 2006, negotiations with Iran led the “six” of international mediators (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany). Only nine years later, July 14, 2015 in Vienna agreed on a final joint comprehensive plan of action on the Iranian nuclear program through the six months of the UN, the US and the EU have removed the economic and financial restrictions on Iran. Despite the fact that the decrees of the American sanctions have not been fully lifted, but only suspended, Europe back to the zero point of its many years of negotiations with Tehran does not want to.
Europe is not only objects, but also tries to influence the course of events. In recent weeks, several European delegations visited the US, where they met with representatives of the transition team Trump and Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, to whom the future president offered the post of adviser on national security. During the meetings, European officials have expressed concern about the preservation of the EU deal with Iran. In addition, the delegation met with congressional Republicans, who set a hostile tone towards Tehran.
The European Union has warned that if Trump will to abolish nuclear deal with Iran, it will be a big mistake with long lasting effects. Tehran for the second time on the negotiations in the format of “six” will not do, could easily resume its nuclear research without taking into account the requirements of the IAEA, finally, deny Europe the economic preferences that European companies are quick to take advantage. For example, a contract for the supply of the company’s Airbus 100 aircraft was signed on December 22, is estimated at 18-20 billion. USD. At list prices. Let us not forget that, despite the high demand for new Iranian civilian aircraft, Tehran entered the market at a time when Airbus has faced with a reduction in the volume of purchases and in dire need of new long-term orders.
Not accidentally, the effect of European sanctions weakens faster than the effect of the sanctions imposed by the United States. In Europe understand that in terms of ease of doing business, Iran is perhaps the biggest new market in today’s global economy. Most sectors of the Iranian economy needs to be modernized, and oil and gas reserves in Iran are represented not only the main components of economic growth, but also a kind of reliable guarantees to investments in Iran. Probably, therefore, including the Ministry of Oil of Iran sees no problems in relations with the European partners in connection with the election of a new President of the USA Trump. European companies wishing to work in the Iranian oil and gas industry, the threat of US president-elect, it seems, too, is not frightened. At least European business retreat from Iran without resistance will not.
Russia and Iran build relations for decades to come
Even short-term use of Russian in August 2016 the Iranian air base ‘Shahid Knife “in Hamadan for bombing strikes on targets in Syria symbolizes that the Russian-Iranian relations entered a fundamentally new phase. In fact the history of the Islamic Republic of military infrastructure at the disposal of a foreign state was no Russian planes in Hamadan became the first and only precedent. Tehran has not signed any agreement with Russia, allowing the use of this database, upon request from Russia ready to consider this issue again.
Predicting the effects of the withdrawal of sanctions on Iran’s foreign policy in 2016, many experts predicted that Iran will inevitably establish relations with the West and stop to look for opportunities for the development of dialogue with Russia. In the worst scenarios, it was assumed that the Iranian leadership will take a frank anti-Russian stance in the international arena. A year later, we can assert that none of these prophecies did not come true.
Moscow and Tehran have maintained regular political dialogue on a wide range of issues, not just on Syria. The international agenda of bilateral relations including non-proliferation, disarmament, counter-terrorism, the situation in Central Asia, the Middle East, Afghanistan, the Caucasus, the Caspian region and Iraq. Until now, however, the prevailing view that relations between the two countries plays a major role not economics, and geopolitics. A certain discrepancy between the level of political and trade-economic relations, there really is. However, as the events of 2016, Russia and Iran are not limited to geopolitics, and develop mutually beneficial cooperation in trade, economic, scientific, cultural and other fields.
Trade turnover between Russia and Iran increased by 67% from last year’s $ 1.3 billion in 2016. The potential for much more, and the two countries are ready to solve the existing problems. In December, Russia and Iran signed a road map for trade and industry in the years 2016-2020 cooperation. They agreed more than 70 specific projects in the field of industry, mechanical engineering, the supply of high-tech equipment. The interest of Russian business to the Iranian market is huge. At the last session of the intergovernmental commission on trade and economic cooperation with the Russian delegation included representatives of 300 companies engaged in the energy, agriculture, banking, transportation, education, forestry and aviation.
No discrimination against Russian companies from the Iranian side, supposedly, decided to allow Europeans to monopolize the oil and gas cooperation, no. Energy cooperation between Russia and Iran is gaining momentum in the oil market. The parties signed a memorandum on co-operation in the field of oil and energy. The document consists of 23 items, including provisions for the exploration, production, mining, swapped.
The parties also signed a Memorandum of Understanding “Gazprom” and the Iranian NIGC, which provides for cooperation in the field of exploration, production, LNG, pipeline gas supply, including in India, as well as the implementation of swap operations. The agreement is a framework, specific projects will be discussed by companies at the corporate level. In particular, the “Gazprom” is in talks on participation in the development of Iran’s Farzad gas field in the Persian Gulf, the estimated volume of production – 10.3 billion cubic meters of gas per year..There are similar arrangements and “Gazprom Neft” plans to participate in the development of oil fields Cheshmeh-Khosh and Shangule.
Finally, it should be noted that the September 10, 2016 the ceremony of laying the first stone in the construction of NPP “Bushehr-2.” The contract provides for the construction of two power units. Russia and Iran signed a contract to build two nuclear reactors with capacity of 1000 megawatts. Recall, the implementation of “Bushehr-2” project will take 10 years, its cost, the Iranian side is estimated at about $ 10 billion. Work on the physical start-up of the second unit of “Bushehr” NPP is scheduled to begin in October 2024, the same work at the third unit the plan will start in April 2026. The first concrete in the base unit №2 “Busher” plan to fill in the third quarter of 2019, this will be the beginning of the actual construction of the unit. As you can see, the prospects for Iranian-Russian cooperation are built in the decades ahead.
Iran.ru
http://www.iran.ru/news/analytics/104080/Itogi_2016_goda_dlya_Irana_SShA_Evropa_Rossiya
