When it is said that the base prices for petrochemical products, including a variety of polymer materials, have been calculated according to the US$ value of Rls. 42.000 so the market is mentally stimulated by buying more materials that it needs, alao because of ambiguity of other various economic and political elements like the currency price, the status of other events and the likelihood of the exclusion of US from JCOPA deal.
Meanwhile, if the market players don’t know anything or guess about the future of other elements, but at least they are sure of one thing: the price of the dollar will not be lower than its equivalent of Rls. 42.000 for a long time in future and so the base price of the polymeric raw materials can’t be less than what it is today. In the other words, it is very unlikely that we will see again a day when the PDID office of the NPC has discovered a rate of Rls. 41.000 for 1 US$. This relative assurance leads to an increase in the orientation of the polymeric raw materials market. But other factors will exacerbate the rise in prices that we will look at it further.
In fact, activists’ confidence that the exchange value of the dollar will not be lower than. Rls. 4,2000, automatcally will trigger demand in the market. Stimulating demands, in the other hand, leads to increasing in competitions on the stock exchange for materials that are alwayas in the competition row, and so it will be sold at the final prices that are alwayas sold at relatively higher prices relative to the base price.
In addition, the sudden decision to overhaul the petrochemical units almost in the same periods is another reason to exacerbate the price increase. Many petrochemical units have announced that they are going to overhaul from May 1st and start their repairs, and some others will be entering into the process in the coming days. This will reduce of course the supply. This drop in supply, in contrast to the increase in demand, would mean higher prices than expected. This behavior of the petrochemicals in announcing the period of major repairs, at a time when the market situation is grossly ambiguous, is a completely economic and rational task for the complexes that should keep their shareholders happy, not manufacturers.
When inwardly, on the one hand, demand is stimulated, and on the other hand, with disappearance of some important country’s producers of the materials, the converters are face with materials’ shortage so a possible double price is not far from suggestions.
Particularly, it seems that a large proportion of the raw materials that have been sold at the last two to three weeks of the year’s end, also at the start of this year have only been available to dealers and marketers, giving them a monopoly stand or and so by not supplying their depot materials in their warehouses, they can rais the prices as far as it goes.
In fact, all the conditions have come into hand, so that the base price of raw materials announced by the PDID office of NPC can not be officially realized.